US President Donald Trump has returned from his successful Gulf visit to the difficulty of delivering on his grand promises, including to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. This is happening at a time when Europe is reassessing its strategic relationship with America and other entities around the world.
But how should we understand Europe’s position on the global map, including with regard to the Middle East?
Let’s begin with Gaza, a source of European moral guilt, born of its inability to pressure Israel to stop its brutal, immoral rampage against ordinary Palestinians. Indeed, the conduct of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government – backed by a substantial portion of the Israeli public – has reached a point of moral bankruptcy. Some European states have therefore concluded they can no longer pretend to not see what is happening.
The UK, Germany and France have threatened punitive measures against Israel and discussed the possibility of recognising the Palestinian state. These threats have yet to materialise into action, nonetheless the continent’s stance matters because if does take action, it carries political, psychological and even economic weight.
This shift in position has enraged Mr Netanyahu and his governing coalition, which has launched a counteroffensive in Gaza, invoking the attacks of October 7, 2023. It has also exploited the recent, dastardly killing of two Israeli diplomats in Washington, using the familiar cries of “anti-Semitism” as a shield to avoid accountability for breaking international law and committing crimes against humanity.
There is a growing sense of disgust around the world at the current Israeli government’s brazen excesses and moral decay. But this disgust is not yet a full-fledged campaign. One reason for this is the lingering memory of Hamas’s actions in October 2023.
Europe’s shifting position follows growing public anger over Israeli conduct, but it falls short of mobilising the full toolkit available to its states. But unless the continent’s leading powers impose effective sanctions and take bold stands in international forums, their gestures will remain largely symbolic.
To be clear, the responsibility to act is not Europe’s alone. It also lies with Arab states – and in particular with Palestinians themselves, especially Hamas. As long as the group clings to the mirage of “victory” in Gaza, it will drag all of Palestine down with it. It is notable that the Palestinian Authority under President Mahmoud Abbas has taken some steps towards internal reforms. During his recent visit to Lebanon, Mr Abbas called on Palestinian groups in the country to respect Beirut’s sovereignty and its exclusive right to bear arms.
Europe, in a way, is compensating for America’s failings on the Palestinian issue, but it is not seeking to compete with anyone over ownership of the resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Rather, it is playing a complementary role to key Arab states, which are exerting pressure on Israel through Washington, sending a clear message: there can be no normalisation without a Palestinian state.
The US-Gulf train has left the station, leaving behind the stop of normalisation – albeit with a window left open for a return (should the Israeli state ever return to its senses). Mr Trump is said to be frustrated with Mr Netanyahu and may even try to clip his wings, but he won’t abandon Israel.
Europeans, meanwhile, are leaving the challenge of dealing with Iran in Mr Trump’s hands. If he succeeds, they will applaud. If he fails, the burden falls on America, not on Europe. Many within the EU consider the Iran nuclear weapons programme to be the US’s problem – unless Israel opts to act independently and launch unlikely attacks on Tehran’s nuclear sites.
There are those in Europe who believe that during his negotiations with Iran, Mr Trump will encounter the same dance he has encountered during the Ukraine-related talks with the Russians: a never-ending ballet, masterfully choreographed to buy time. Europe won’t get entangled in the Iran negotiations – apart from fulfilling its obligations to snap back sanctions under the auspices of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran lost European favour when it sided with Russia in the Ukraine war. And so, the Europeans are no longer willing to bend over backwards for Tehran as they once did.
Europeans no longer fear Mr Trump and his unpredictable policies either. The US President has lost his leverage over the continent. He shifted America’s policy regarding Moscow’s war in Ukraine, and now he finds himself staring at what appears to be an insurmountable wall. Mr Trump thought he could end the war, only to be confronted by the harsh geopolitical and battlefield realities.
In the European eyes, next month’s Nato summit represents a serious test for the US President. He will arrive either with an unlikely peace breakthrough in Ukraine or burdened by the war’s consequences. He will also have to make serious decisions about America’s role in Nato, beyond bluster or demands for more European financial contributions.
Mr Trump has yet to fulfil his campaign promises to end wars and secure grand bargains. This is because the political realities in Iran, Russia and Israel are shattering this objective. For some of these establishments, after all, their very survival appears to trump their respective national interests.
