Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz’s recent threat to “turn Tehran into Beirut” with attacks on civilian areas will be difficult to execute without direct US involvement, Iranian analysts and citizens told The National.
They pointed to Tehran’s vast size and distance from Israel, as well as Iran’s military strength and defensive capabilities, as major obstacles.
The "Dahieh Doctrine" – named after Israel’s 2006 destruction of the Beirut residential suburb, which is Hezbollah’s seat of power – relies on using overwhelming force against enemy infrastructure in civilian areas. It aims to cause destruction and sow discord, ultimately causing the civilian population to turn against Hezbollah in Lebanon, or Hamas in Gaza. But analysts said such a doctrine cannot be easily applied to Iran.
The Israelis "are trying to replicate their strategy in Lebanon,” said Seyed Emamian, an assistant professor at Tehran Polytechnic University, referring to Israel’s sudden and deadly air and ground campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024. “But Iran is quite different in terms of size, military, geography, and distance from Israel.”
In Lebanon, Israel's military campaign began with a shock-and-awe air offensive and a targeted decapitation strategy against Hezbollah’s leadership. Israeli air superiority – made possible by Lebanon’s lack of air defence systems or a functioning air force – allowed near-total freedom of operation. The offensive also followed an unprecedented Mossad spy operation that crippled much of Hezbollah’s fighting force.
Israel was also successful in assassinating long-time Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Then it assassinated his replacement, “and his replacement’s replacement,” as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in October of last year. They also took out the vast majority of Hezbollah’s remaining command structure.
Unlike Hezbollah, Iran’s armed forces – particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – possesses an extensive air defence network and a layered military hierarchy that cannot be neutralised with decapitation strikes alone, according to Mr Emamian.
“They wanted to dismantle the army’s leadership chain. But there are huge numbers of leadership in the Iranian army,” said Mr Emamian, who is also the co-founder of the Governance and Policy think tank in Tehran. “The IRGC is not comparable to Hezbollah in terms of command structure.”
The scale and capabilities of the Iranian military, combined with its geographic depth, make any attempt to replicate Israel’s Lebanon strategy in Tehran far more complex – a campaign that may ultimately rely on drawing the US into direct military intervention.
Civilian mood
Meanwhile, in Tehran – a sprawling metropolis of more than 10 million – thousands have fled amid repeated Israeli calls to evacuate, but few see these warnings as realistic.
“Honestly most people are behaving as Iranians normally behave during the holidays,” Mr Emamian said of the traffic jams and the mass exodus. He himself has left the city for the countryside, like many others. “Tehran is less crowded now. But there’s no public panic because Tehran is huge. There are some people who don’t hear or see the strikes.”
For nearly two years, Iranian citizens watched as Israel wrought devastation in Gaza and Lebanon and their government, which backs numerous regional proxies, attempted to avoid war on its own doorstep.
“But of course we didn’t imagine there would be a war and that they would strike Iran in this way,” said Ahmad Jahandar, 43, who lives in the city of Rasht, near the Caspian Sea.
Still he, too, was doubtful of Israel’s threats to “burn Tehran”. “Greater Tehran has 15 million people in it,” he said dismissively in response to the Israeli threats.
“Dozens of women and children have been killed. We’re being attacked even night and day,” he said. He referred to US President Donald Trump's warning to Iranians to evacuate the capital and said "I don't think psychological warfare is useful in such cases".
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Fight card
1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)
4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)
5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)
6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)
9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)
10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)
11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
Gulf rugby
Who’s won what so far in 2018/19
Western Clubs Champions League: Bahrain
Dubai Rugby Sevens: Dubai Hurricanes
West Asia Premiership: Bahrain
What’s left
UAE Conference
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Hurricanes II v Al Ain Amblers, Jebel Ali Dragons II v Dubai Tigers
March 29, final
UAE Premiership
March 22, play-offs:
Dubai Exiles v Jebel Ali Dragons, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Hurricanes
March 29, final
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode
Directors: Raj & DK
Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon
Rating: 4/5
Chatham House Rule
A mark of Chatham House’s influence 100 years on since its founding, was Moscow’s formal declaration last month that it was an “undesirable
organisation”.
The depth of knowledge and academics that it drew on
following the Ukraine invasion had broadcast Mr Putin’s chicanery.
The institute is more used to accommodating world leaders,
with Nelson Mandela, Margaret Thatcher among those helping it provide
authoritative commentary on world events.
Chatham House was formally founded as the Royal Institute of
International Affairs following the peace conferences of World War One. Its
founder, Lionel Curtis, wanted a more scientific examination of international affairs
with a transparent exchange of information and ideas.
That arena of debate and analysis was enhanced by the “Chatham
House Rule” states that the contents of any meeting can be discussed outside Chatham
House but no mention can be made identifying individuals who commented.
This has enabled some candid exchanges on difficult subjects
allowing a greater degree of free speech from high-ranking figures.
These meetings are highly valued, so much so that
ambassadors reported them in secret diplomatic cables that – when they were
revealed in the Wikileaks reporting – were thus found to have broken the rule. However,
most speeches are held on the record.
Its research and debate has offered fresh ideas to
policymakers enabling them to more coherently address troubling issues from climate
change to health and food security.
In numbers
Number of Chinese tourists coming to UAE in 2017 was... 1.3m
Alibaba’s new ‘Tech Town’ in Dubai is worth... $600m
China’s investment in the MIddle East in 2016 was... $29.5bn
The world’s most valuable start-up in 2018, TikTok, is valued at... $75bn
Boost to the UAE economy of 5G connectivity will be... $269bn
2020 Oscars winners: in numbers
- Parasite – 4
- 1917– 3
- Ford v Ferrari – 2
- Joker – 2
- Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood – 2
- American Factory – 1
- Bombshell – 1
- Hair Love – 1
- Jojo Rabbit – 1
- Judy – 1
- Little Women – 1
- Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl) – 1
- Marriage Story – 1
- Rocketman – 1
- The Neighbors' Window – 1
- Toy Story 4 – 1
GAC GS8 Specs
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Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
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The%20specs
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It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Price: From Dh180,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged and supercharged in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 320hp @ 5,700rpm
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Fuel economy, combined: 9.7L / 100km
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
SPECS
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
