US-Iran talks will prevent war but progress will be slow, experts say

Talks between the US and Iran set for the weekend are not expected to yield major results but could prevent a military attack against Tehran that would have a dangerous regional impact, experts have told The National.

Although the agenda for the negotiations in Oman remains uncertain, the two sides are likely to discuss Iran's nuclear capabilities and missile arsenal, as well as the influence it wields across the Middle East through allied groups.

“The talks will not deliver immediate success or failure but will be a part of a longer discussion that cannot be concluded so quickly,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at London-based think tank Chatham House.

“The meeting – whether direct or indirect – will be important to set out the framework and issues on the table,” she told The National.

These talks can “prevent further advancements in Iran's nuclear programme and stop a military attack that will be extremely dangerous not just for Iran but for the region as a whole”, she said.

Earlier this week, both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US President Donald Trump confirmed the talks would take place, but they differed on whether they would be conducted directly or through intermediaries.

Since Mr Trump sent a letter in early March to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calling for dialogue, there has been disagreement over the issue.

Mr Khamenei, who holds ultimate authority over foreign policy matters, has repeatedly expressed opposition to holding direct talks with the Trump administration, which he blames for the collapse of a 2015 deal with world powers that placed limits on Iran's nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. Mr Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018, during his first term as president.

Since returning to office, Mr Trump has taken a carrot and stick approach to dealing with Iran, simultaneously calling for a diplomatic deal while also voicing plans for a military attack with “bombing the likes of which they have never seen”.

He has said “Iran is going to be in great danger” if the talks are unsuccessful.

For his part, Mr Araghchi has expressed a willingness to secure an agreement, writing in the Washington Post on Tuesday that Tehran was “ready to engage in earnest and with a view to seal a deal”.

“It is as much an opportunity as it is a test,” Mr Araghchi wrote. He said his country's top priority is the lifting of sweeping US sanctions. Their reimposition by Mr Trump in 2018 as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign has dealt a heavy blow to the Iranian economy, with inflation running high and the currency plunging.

“If the other side shows enough of the necessary willingness, a deal can be found,” Mr Araghchi said. “The ball is in America's court.”

Preventing war

Farzan Sabet, managing researcher at the Geneva Graduate Institute, told The National that the talks are an opportunity to prevent violence. “What I think is at stake is the prospect of war or at the very least a significant military conflict, including US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes,” he said.

The likelihood of a military clash is higher than at any time in the past and will remain high if a concrete deal is not reached between the two sides, Mr Sabet added.

“The chances for a potential conflict do increase over time – despite the fact that Iran is not looking for a confrontation – and President Trump would prefer to avoid that outcome,” he told The National.

The threat of war comes at a time of shifting dynamics in the Middle East that place Tehran in a vulnerable position. Regional armed groups allied to Iran have been weakened by months of military conflict with Israel, while Tehran has lost an ally with the fall of former Syrian president Bashar Al Assad.

Iran's “deterrent capabilities have been weakened and just as importantly, the perception of their military strength has gone down, so they're viewed both within the region and beyond as being relatively weaker than before October 2023", Mr Sabet said.

Talking points

At the top of the agenda for the talks will be the nuclear programme, Iran's missiles and its proxies in the region, experts said.

Washington will press Tehran to stop nuclear enrichment, hand over its supply of enriched uranium and destroy its existing nuclear facilities as well as stop its support for regional military groups. This will be rejected by Iran's senior officials, analysts told The National.

On the table will be questions such as “how much do you curb enrichment, and do you leave a residual enrichment programme?” said Dina Esfandiary, an Iran expert and Middle East geo-economics lead at Bloomberg Economics.

“Some people in the US system have been calling for complete dismantlement of Iran's programme. I think that's a non-starter for Iran. If that's their opening salvo, it's not going to go very far,” Ms Esfandiary told The National.

For the Iranians, the question of how much sanctions relief they can secure will be a top priority. “I think there's going to be a little bit of a dance, push and pull on those two main issues,” Ms Esfandiary said.

An initial agenda will be set out when US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff engages with Mr Araghchi on Saturday.

“Both sides will then return to their respective capitals for feedback, and if the progress is viewed as positive there, come back with a more concrete idea of what issues they want to address,” Mr Sabet said.

But Ms Esfandiary indicated that Washington could find the negotiations slow and challenging, with Mr Araghchi a seasoned diplomat with decades of experience on the nuclear file.

“To put it mildly, I wouldn't want to be Mr Witkoff,” she said.